LPL Outlook Publications
Hindsight is 20/20, but finding clarity in future uncertainty can be fuzzy.
AT LPL RESEARCH, as we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch, including progress on U.S.-China trade discussions, an encouraging outlook from corporate America, and continued strength in consumer spending.
Trade risk, slower global growth, and the impeachment inquiry have garnered a lot of the headlines recently, but behind the scenes the U.S. economy has remained resilient. Economic data has been meeting lowered expectations, indicating an expansion that is still enduring. Most recently, third quarter economic growth was consistent with the long-term trend of this current economic expansion, which is now more than 10 years old.
We expect the U.S. economy to continue to grow in 2020 and support gains for stocks, although we are increasingly mindful of our position in the business cycle. At some point in the future, this record-long expansion will come to a close, leaving investors wondering what’s next. Against this backdrop, questions about the next potential recession and the 2020 U.S. presidential election continue to be top of mind for many investors. While we can’t see into the future, one thing we can predict is that uncertainty in the markets is here to stay. And we are here to help. We offer our Outlook 2020, your guide to preparing for this dynamic—and uncertain—market environment.
Read more about our forecasts and key themes in the full publication.
Mid Year Outlook 2019
LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets is filled with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead.
LPL Financial Research believes that even as investors face prospects for periodic bouts of volatility, emphasizing fundamentals will remain critical for making effective investment decisions. LPL Financial Research’s Midyear Outlook 2019 provides updated views of current fundamentals and factors that should persist as shorter-term concerns fade, and emphasizes four primary pillars for fundamental investing – policy, the economy, fixed income, and equities. As headlines change, look to these pillars and LPL Financial Research’s Midyear Outlook 2019 to help provide perspective on what really matters in the markets.
LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets is filled with investment insights and market guidance for the year ahead. LPL Research believes the following three themes will be key to the markets:
- Sustaining growth via fiscal policy. We expect the ongoing impact of fiscal stimulus will be readily apparent in 2019 and that policy will continue to play an important role for the economy and financial markets—potentially extending the duration of the current business cycle.
- Creating opportunity amid rising volatility. We believe any bouts of market volatility should be embraced—not feared—by suitable investors as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios toward targeted allocations.
- Fundamentals in focus. Despite the market weakness we saw at the end of 2018, at LPL Research we expect the U.S. economy to grow in 2019 and support gains for stocks. Risks such as trade uncertainty, slowing global growth, and geopolitics do require careful monitoring, however, for their potential impact on the markets and economy.
“We do not anticipate a recession in 2019, thanks to the fundamentally driven economic momentum, combined with fiscal incentives and government spending programs on tap for the coming year,” said Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We encourage investors, where appropriate, to base any investment decisions on the fundamentals rather than acting on speculative headlines, especially as the cycle matures and the 2020 presidential election now comes into increased focus.” Armed with the investment insights of LPL Research’s Outlook 2019, and supported by the guidance of a trusted financial advisor, we expect investors can remain prepared for investment opportunities ahead.
View the Outlook 2019 Video. Outlook 2019 Video
Mid Year Outlook 2018
Presenting the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens, packed with investment insights and market analysis to guide you through all the action we may see in the year ahead.
When we as investors began 2018, we were tuned in to the recent fiscal policy changes that were expected to propel economic activity and the financial markets higher in the coming year. The handoff in leadership from monetary policy to fiscal policy was well underway as a driver of consumer spending, business investment, and corporate profits. Instead of depending on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to move this expansion forward, fiscal incentives are now critical for continued growth, with the new tax law taking the lead.
Although we expect continued growth, there is also the potential for greater market sensitivity due to the late cycle concerns that can emerge when the economy is doing well. So indeed, the plot has thickened. But that doesn’t mean we’ve taken a turn for the worse. The underlying forces are still forging ahead and this expansion and bull market have not been defeated. Right now, there are many positive fundamentals, like business investment and corporate profits, supporting economic growth and potential market gains.
Armed with the investment insights of LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2018, and supported by the guidance of a trusted financial advisor, we expect investors can remain optimistic about what’s ahead for their investment portfolios. Read more about our forecasts and key themes to watch in the full publication. This guidance and investment insight can benefit investors in their search for long-term success. Download your copy today!
View the Midyear Outlook 2018 Executive Summary. Mid Year Outlook 2018 Executive Summary
View the complete Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens. Mid Year Outlook 2018
View the Midyear Outlook 2018 YouTube video. Mid Year Outlook 2018 YouTube Video
Presenting the LPL Research Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle, packed with investment insights and market analysis to guide you through all the action we may see in the year ahead.
“Return of the business cycle” refers to a return to the traditional forces that have historically propelled the economic cycle forward. Instead of relying on central bank intervention and accommodative monetary policy, we’re turning to some new lead characters to take charge: fiscal policy and better business fundamentals. Fiscal policy means increased government spending, tax cuts, and some regulatory relief. We need Congress to enact some policies to help keep this expansion going. As far as business fundamentals, we expect to see improvement in revenue, earnings, and future growth prospects.
Increased business spending is also expected to play an important supporting role for the U.S. economy, and could see a faster growth trajectory in 2018. For stocks to potentially reach attractive gains, earnings growth will be a key driver. Better global growth is supportive of earnings, and tax reform has the potential to provide an additional boost. All of these factors, and more, will be important to watch in 2018.
We have experienced a fundamental shift in what’s driving the economic cycle. Businesses and investors may be well positioned to benefit from this new dynamic. The LPL Research Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle highlights the opportunities and potential challenges that may lie ahead for market participants. This guidance and investment insight can benefit investors in their search for long-term success.
View the complete Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle. Outlook 2018
View the Outlook 2018 YouTube video. https://youtu.be/DDq1VVVpBow
Mid Year Outlook 2017
Thus far in 2017, an important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve has shown increasing trust that the economy has recovered and that market forces can keep it steady. Fiscal policy may now provide the backstop to the economy that monetary policy has provided throughout the expansion. The gauges say growth engines and market drivers may have changed: power down monetary policy, power up business fundamentals, and potentially take fiscal policy and economic growth off standby.
Here are the key themes LPL Research will be watching as we look ahead to the rest of 2017:
- Monetary policy: Slow path to normalization. Maintaining economic growth without extraordinary central bank support will be key.
- Business fundamentals: Now taking control. A focus on well-run businesses with the potential for earnings gains may favor active management.
- Economic growth: Confidence not enough, yet. Business and consumer confidence has improved, but greater policy clarity may be needed to spur growth.
- Fiscal policy: Pro-growth potential, but when? Fiscal policy support remains likely, but the timetable may be pushed back to 2018.
View the complete Midyear Outlook 2017: A Shift In Market Control. Mid Year Outlook 2017
View the Midyear Outlook 2017 YouTube video. https://www.youtube.com/embed/7TQ03hXmg1o
In 2016, financial markets, the economy, and geopolitics experienced an unusual number of milestones that have come together to influence the investment landscape: a new president and administration, the stabilization of oil prices, and the end of an earnings recession. Being prepared for 2017 is about gauging these and other milestones, understanding their significance, and responding without overreacting. The LPL Research Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones features market guidance, with forecasts for stocks, bonds, and the economy, that can help you to read the gauges and make adjustments in the year ahead, while staying strategic and maintaining a long-term investment view.
View the complete Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones. Outlook 2017
Mid Year Outlook 2016
At the midyear point of 2016, LPL Research proposes a vote of confidence: in the economy, the market, and most importantly, in our ability as investors to remain focused on our long-term goals. This is not always easy. We may be entering the eighth year of this economic recovery and bull market, but that doesn’t mean the memories of the Great Recession have faded away; and the volatility we’ve seen this year revives those memories and takes an emotional toll. As we cast our ballots, our vote is that the current economic recovery and bull market may continue through 2016 and beyond. With the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence, you will be armed with the investment insights and market guidance for what may lie ahead for the rest of this year.
View the complete Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence. Mid Year Outlook 2016
A key to success, in life and investing, is juggling the familiarity and wisdom of old routines with the adjustments demanded by an ever-evolving world. As we look forward to 2016, the LPL Research team expects a return to routine for some key areas of the economy and market, but by a path that may catch some investors unprepared. Investors will need a solid plan to navigate the changing landscape as they adjust to changes like the start of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, a maturing economic cycle, and the 2016 elections. We believe LPL Research’s Outlook 2016 will help investors refresh, renew, and embrace their routines in the face of unexpected developments and a changing environment. By embracing new routines, investors will be able to focus on what matters most to markets, block out short-term distractions that will quickly fade, and seek to make progress toward long-term financial goals.
View the complete Outlook 2016: Embrace the Routine. Outlook 2016
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security. The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted. Rebalancing a portfolio may cause investors to incur tax liabilities and/or transaction costs and does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.