LPL Outlook Publications
Presenting the LPL Research Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle, packed with investment insights and market analysis to guide you through all the action we may see in the year ahead.
“Return of the business cycle” refers to a return to the traditional forces that have historically propelled the economic cycle forward. Instead of relying on central bank intervention and accommodative monetary policy, we’re turning to some new lead characters to take charge: fiscal policy and better business fundamentals. Fiscal policy means increased government spending, tax cuts, and some regulatory relief. We need Congress to enact some policies to help keep this expansion going. As far as business fundamentals, we expect to see improvement in revenue, earnings, and future growth prospects.
Increased business spending is also expected to play an important supporting role for the U.S. economy, and could see a faster growth trajectory in 2018. For stocks to potentially reach attractive gains, earnings growth will be a key driver. Better global growth is supportive of earnings, and tax reform has the potential to provide an additional boost. All of these factors, and more, will be important to watch in 2018.
We have experienced a fundamental shift in what’s driving the economic cycle. Businesses and investors may be well positioned to benefit from this new dynamic. The LPL Research Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle highlights the opportunities and potential challenges that may lie ahead for market participants. This guidance and investment insight can benefit investors in their search for long-term success.
View the complete Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle. http://lpl-research.com/outlook/2018/Outlook_2018_PrinterFriendly.pdf 2
View the Outlook 2018 YouTube video. https://youtu.be/DDq1VVVpBow
Mid Year Outlook 2017
Thus far in 2017, an important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve has shown increasing trust that the economy has recovered and that market forces can keep it steady. Fiscal policy may now provide the backstop to the economy that monetary policy has provided throughout the expansion. The gauges say growth engines and market drivers may have changed: power down monetary policy, power up business fundamentals, and potentially take fiscal policy and economic growth off standby.
Here are the key themes LPL Research will be watching as we look ahead to the rest of 2017:
- Monetary policy: Slow path to normalization. Maintaining economic growth without extraordinary central bank support will be key.
- Business fundamentals: Now taking control. A focus on well-run businesses with the potential for earnings gains may favor active management.
- Economic growth: Confidence not enough, yet. Business and consumer confidence has improved, but greater policy clarity may be needed to spur growth.
- Fiscal policy: Pro-growth potential, but when? Fiscal policy support remains likely, but the timetable may be pushed back to 2018.
View the complete Midyear Outlook 2017: A Shift In Market Control. http://lpl-research.com/outlook/MYO_2017_SinglePage.pdf
View the Midyear Outlook 2017 YouTube video. https://www.youtube.com/embed/7TQ03hXmg1o
In 2016, financial markets, the economy, and geopolitics experienced an unusual number of milestones that have come together to influence the investment landscape: a new president and administration, the stabilization of oil prices, and the end of an earnings recession. Being prepared for 2017 is about gauging these and other milestones, understanding their significance, and responding without overreacting. The LPL Research Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones features market guidance, with forecasts for stocks, bonds, and the economy, that can help you to read the gauges and make adjustments in the year ahead, while staying strategic and maintaining a long-term investment view.
View the complete Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones. http://lpl-research.com/outlook/Outlook_2017_Spread.pdf
View the Outlook 2017 YouTube video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wed3zSh2wHg
Mid Year Outlook 2016
At the midyear point of 2016, LPL Research proposes a vote of confidence: in the economy, the market, and most importantly, in our ability as investors to remain focused on our long-term goals. This is not always easy. We may be entering the eighth year of this economic recovery and bull market, but that doesn’t mean the memories of the Great Recession have faded away; and the volatility we’ve seen this year revives those memories and takes an emotional toll. As we cast our ballots, our vote is that the current economic recovery and bull market may continue through 2016 and beyond. With the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence, you will be armed with the investment insights and market guidance for what may lie ahead for the rest of this year.
View the complete Midyear Outlook 2016: A Vote of Confidence. http://lpl-research.com/outlook/Midyear_Outlook_2016_spread.pdf
A key to success, in life and investing, is juggling the familiarity and wisdom of old routines with the adjustments demanded by an ever-evolving world. As we look forward to 2016, the LPL Research team expects a return to routine for some key areas of the economy and market, but by a path that may catch some investors unprepared. Investors will need a solid plan to navigate the changing landscape as they adjust to changes like the start of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, a maturing economic cycle, and the 2016 elections. We believe LPL Research’s Outlook 2016 will help investors refresh, renew, and embrace their routines in the face of unexpected developments and a changing environment. By embracing new routines, investors will be able to focus on what matters most to markets, block out short-term distractions that will quickly fade, and seek to make progress toward long-term financial goals.
View the complete Outlook 2016: Embrace the Routine. http://lpl-research.com/outlook/Outlook_2016_spread.pdf
View the Outlook 2016 YouTube video. https://youtu.be/8HP6Dj7LyOo